| Analysis Type | Correlation | Causal Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Question | "What happened together?" | "What caused what?" |
| Example | Email opens correlate with sales | Emails caused 15% more sales |
| Method | Regression analysis | Holdout/control groups |
| Executive credibility | Low ("maybe") | High ("proven") |
Statistical methods that establish causation (not just correlation) between marketing/sales actions and revenue outcomes using experimental design.
Dashboards show correlation: "people who got emails also bought." Causal inference proves causation: "emails caused them to buy." This is the difference between hope and proof.
ROI Ledger uses holdout testing for causal inference. Weekly reports show causally-attributed revenue, not just correlated metrics.
Self-Improving ROI LedgerA testing methodology where a percentage of accounts receive no AI actions (control group) to measure the true incremental revenue impact of automation.
A ledger system that tracks every AI action with a UUID and attributes actual revenue contribution using holdout testing.
The incremental revenue increase attributed to AI actions, measured against a holdout control group that received no AI intervention.
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